Two a penny

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The swine flu virus is more contagious than previously thought and is spreading faster than the 1918 Spanish flu, according to new research published today.

The letter written by University of Otago, Wellington researchers and published in the New Zealand Medical Journal today said that every person who caught swine flu would pass it on to an average of about two other people, meaning up to 79 percent of the population could be affected.

Associate Professor Michael Baker and Dr Nick Wilson from the Department of Public Health worked with Holland-based mathematical modeller Dr Hiroshi Nishiura to give the first published estimate for the reproduction of the virus in the Southern Hemisphere.

The number of people each person who catches swine flu will subsequently infect is known as the reproductive number.96, which is somewhat higher than the number we have previously used in modelling estimates,” Mr Baker said.

“Our best estimate of the reproduction number for the Influenza A virus in New Zealand is 1.5 which was published early in the pandemic based on data from Mexico.

“To date we have tended to use a lower estimate of 1. While up to 79 percent of the population could catch swine flu over the course of the epidemic, many would not realise they had it, they said in the letter.”

The researchers calculated this by analysing the spread of the virus from 2 June, when the first case of community transmission was recorded, to 16 June, before health authorities stopped recording all cases due to the rapid growth.

Mr Baker said the higher prevalence in New Zealand could be to do with do with the virus hitting the Southern Hemisphere in winter and due to large clusters of infected people in other cases.

While up to 79 percent of the population could catch swine flu over the course of the epidemic though many would not realise they had it, they said in the letter.6 percent.

Previous reports published in Japan suggested the reproduction rate there could be as high as two to 2.

However, the projected rate here could be reviewed after a more accurate analysis of the demographic and if the public responded to measures to help restrict the spread of the virus, Dr Baker said.

However, the rate here could be lower if the public responded to measures to help restrict the spread of the virus, Dr Baker said. .

The researchers pointed out that although it was more contagious than Spanish flu which killed thousands, the mortality rate was still very low – an earlier study released by the pair said the number of deaths could be as low as one in 10,000 cases.

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Murderers will no longer be able to claim they were provoked into committing their crime under a law change the government is planning.

Cabinet will consider the proposal in the next two to three weeks but Prime Minister John Key has given his approval, making it almost certain to go ahead.

Justice Minister Simon Power, in a speech to the Institute of Policy Studies in Wellington today, unveiled a raft of areas the government was looking at including updating the law around sexual crimes, better protection for children and the partial defence of provocation.

The jury yesterday found him guilty of murder.

The defence has sparked heated debate after Otago University tutor Clayton Weatherston argued he was provoked into stabbing girlfriend Sophie Elliott stabbed 216 times and was only guilty of manslaughter.

He told reporters: “I think (the defence has) had its time, I think there are other mechanisms on the statute book that deal with some circumstances that may arise”.

Mr Power said the defence “wrongly enables defendants to besmirch the character of victims, and effectively rewards a lack of self-control”.

Once Cabinet gave approval a bill would be drafted.

“It would be fair to say there would be lot of support around the Cabinet table for the move that Simon Power is leading,” he said.

Mr Key indicated Cabinet would be advancing it.

His defence argued that Mr Brown came on strongly to Ambach and might have attempted to rape him, leading Ambach to lose control and beat him with a banjo before ramming the stem down his throat.

Ferdinand Ambach this month favourably used the defence in his trial for killing Auckland man Ronald Brown, 69.

“It was on its own time track, I have been very careful to make no comment on the Weatherston trial or for that matter any other trial.

Mr Power denied today’s announcement was knee-jerk reaction to recent cases saying the work had been going on for some time.”

He would have delayed the speech had a verdict not been delivered.”

He would have delayed the speech had a verdict not been delivered.

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Isaac Ross didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when All Blacks team-mate Ali Williams went down with a recurrence of his Achilles tendon problems, handing a first test start on his home track to the impressive young Cantab.

Williams pulled up sore at the All Blacks’ training session at Rugby Park here today, and was immediately withdrawn from the starting lineup to face Italy on Saturday in the last of the Iveco series tests.

It’s yet another setback for the 61-test second-rower from Auckland who has struggled all year to shake off the injury. Bryn Evans comes on to the bench to cover the second row.

That prospect now looks a gloomy one, with Williams’ continuing problems putting a major cloud over his participation at Eden Park. There were high hopes he could come through this match and put himself squarely in the frame for the Tri-Nations which kicks off with a clash against the Wallabies on July 18 in Auckland. It’s yet another setback since he first picked up the strain in the Blues’ clash against the Hurricanes early in the Super 14.

Williams cut a desolate figure at the training session, watching on from the sidelines as his team-mates were put through their paces.”

But Ross was definitely examining on the bright side of things after the 24-year-old was called up to make the third start of his rookie campaign, but an all-important first one on AMI Stadium.

All Blacks doctor Deb Robinson confirmed the injury, saying: “It’s disappointing for Ali and over the next 48 hours we will determine the next best course of action as far as his injury management is concerned. “I felt sorry for him, but it was great for me.

“It was really mixed emotions,” said the athletic Cantab who has been calling the lineouts with a good degree of success. I felt gutted, but without them even saying, when I saw him go down I was like ‘that’s mine’.

“The first test on the home track – it’s going to be awesome. So I’m not complaining about it.”

Ross described the chance to start on Saturday night as a “bonus”, adding: “One man’s misfortune is another man’s pleasure. I was pretty fortunate to get to start the first two and this one is just icing on the cake.

“When I first made the team this was one of the games I was gunning for. His combination with the ageless Brad Thorn continues to impress and he says he feels ready to take another step forward on Saturday night against the combative Italian pack.”

Ross certainly feels a lot more settled now with those two tough tests against the French under the belt. “We know it wasn’t the perfect performance, so all we can do is go up from here. .

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Plastic fantastic, but price tag a drag

By CHARLIE GATES – Thursday, 26 February 2009

KIRK HARGREAVES/
COMFORT STOP: the newly designed lounge for bus passengers at the Christchurch bus exchange.

A $1 million Christchurch bus exchange makeover, including a space-age waiting room, has delighted commuters but some are shocked at the price tag. .
The $1m budget includes the new waiting area, complete with colourful moulded plastic seats, as well as revamping the Colombo St bus stops removing bus shelters and installing new railings and bins.
"I reckon it is really awesome.
Commuter Reremoamarua Diaz, 14, praised the new waiting room, but was amazed at the cost. That is a lot of money though. It is really nice to have more space, because the bus exchange is really full.
Diaz also liked the workbench and stools, presumably installed to allow waiting students to make a start on homework. I reckon it is a bit too much to spend," she said.
"I think it is probably not worth it.
Bethana Hercock, 17, liked the new waiting room, but was surprised at the price. They should spend it on something more worthwhile as most people don't wait here too long," she said. $1 million is a lot of money.
"It seems a crazy thing to spend money on, especially during a recession," she said.
Tasha Bylenok, 18, said it was too much to spend in a time of economic uncertainty.
Real-time bus information is displayed on screens in the new lounge so commuters can wait in comfort rather than on the street.
The new lounge was built in an empty shop and was designed by council architect Crispin Schurr.
However, he said he preferred that to the "absorbent" seating in the old bus exchange.
John Irving, 24, said the glossy seats looked "a bit sterile and wipe down".

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Not guilty of friend’s manslaughter

Tuesday, 24 February 2009

CLEARED: Mossburn man Colin Bruce Taylor has been cleared of the manslaughter of Alistair Day. A fight broke out after Taylor discovered Mr Day was having an affair with his wife.

A Mossburn man accused of the manslaughter of one of his closest friends walked free after a jury in the High Court in Invercargill found him not guilty yesterday. Mr Day, 42, died after the incident. .
It took the jury little more than an hour to reach the not guilty verdict, a decision that was met with applause from the public gallery. The fight broke out after Taylor discovered Mr Day was having an affair with his wife.
During the course of the six-day trial, the jury heard from witnesses at the hotel, two pathologists and listened to 111 calls relating to the incident. Justice Christine French convicted and discharged Taylor on that charge, citing his previous clean slate and the stress endured during the past 12 months.
Taylor had already pleaded guilty to an alternative charge of assault.
It had been tough year not only for the family but the entire Mossburn community, and he felt sorry for the people who had had to give testimony, he said.
Reacting to the verdict, a male family member said the decision was a relief.
Despite evidence the punch thrown had been "lame" there was still a risk of injury involved, Ms Thomas said.
In her closing, Crown solicitor Mary-Jane Thomas said the question was not whether a heart event had caused Mr Day's death but whether the punch thrown by Taylor was the substantive cause of the death.
"If I punch somebody on the jaw when they're drunk on the tarmac, that in itself is dangerous, and a reasonable and responsible person would know that," she said.
"If I punch somebody on the jaw when they're drunk on the tarmac, that in itself is dangerous, and a reasonable and responsible person would know that," she said.
"No-one, not even the experts, can be sure of what caused Mr Day's death," he said.
Defence counsel Bill Dawkins said in his closing statement the jury could not be sure beyond a reasonable doubt that Taylor's punch was the substantive cause of death because evidence from both pathologists and witnesses suggested a heart event could have happened just before the punch.
A second pathologist enlisted by the defence, Dr Kenneth Anderson, said it was possible for someone to remain standing for several seconds after suffering a heart event.
Last week, the jury heard that an autopsy revealed Mr Day's heart was 50 per cent larger than normal and he was suffering from severe atherosclerosis (narrowing of arteries), which meant he was at risk of a fatal heart event.
The situation outside the hotel, which involved heated words, accusations and pushing, could have led to such an adrenaline rush in Mr Day, Mr Dawkins said.
In some circumstances, he said, adrenaline surges, such as those experienced in highly charged situations, could help a person overcome feelings of unwellness.
Mr Taylor's wife Bernadette declined to comment on the verdict yesterday when contacted at her home by .The lack of bruising on both of Mr Taylor's hands and only superficial bruising to Mr Day's jaw was also proof the blow had been weak, he said.

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More bad loan advice received

By KATHERINE NEWTON Thursday, 19 February 2009

At least five more letters may have been sent from Work and Income telling Mangere clients to take out loans, despite Work and Income's claim a similar letter was an aberration. .
Ms King said she believed a letter she tabled in Parliament on Tuesday, that advised a Mangere client to take out loans and pawn possessions, was not a one-off."
Each of the letters seemed to have been written by the same person.
"I do know out of that Mangere office there have been at least six letters."
Ms King did not believe the problem was systemic, but was concerned by a similar case in Hamilton brought to her attention yesterday. "They're saying the same things.
In an email, the Hamilton woman told how a case manager advised her to take out a loan with QCard, an offshoot of Fisher & Paykel Finance, after her car broke down.
"The case manager saw this as an option for me even though I would be charged interest.
"I specifically said to her that I did not want to go to a finance company," the woman said.
Social Development Minister Paula Bennett has asked her ministry to investigate, saying such advice was unacceptable."
The woman said she was shocked at the advice she was given and disgusted that other clients had been told the same thing. He would follow up the Hamilton case.
Ministry chief executive Peter Hughes said he was not aware more than one letter had been sent out, calling the Mangere incident an "aberration".
Telling clients to take out loans was not ministry policy, he said.
Telling clients to take out loans was not ministry policy, he said.
"I'm disappointed that we did not do more to discourage that."
Some of the suggestions in the Mangere letter Ms King had tabled were made by the client herself, Mr Hughes said."
The ministry was clarifying its procedures rather than focusing on the case manager involved, a spokeswoman for Ms Bennett said. We need to make sure that the rest of our staff are clear that this is not an option.

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$80m paid out on medical accidents

Tuesday, 03 February 2009

Patients want more protection

Compensation to patients who suffered surgical errors, missed diagnoses and other "treatment injuries" may have topped $80 million last year.
Figures given to The under the Official Information Act show the biggest individual payout of more than $550,000 went to a patient blinded as a result of a treatment injury. Figures were unavailable for the last three months of 2008.
Between January and September, the ACC paid more than $63 million in new and continuing claims an average of $7 million a month.
ACC's director of clinical services, Kevin Morris, said the increasing number of claims did not mean hospital staff, dentists, pharmacists and other health workers were making more mistakes rather, it reflected greater openness. The cost of treatment injuries and medical misadventure has risen more than 250 per cent since 2001, from $26 million for 2643 claims to $69 million for 7235 claims in 2007. "In cases of medical error, there was a tendency for lawyers to get involved, which strung out the process considerably.
In July 2005, ACC replaced "medical misadventure" with the treatment injury category, meaning claimants no longer had to prove an error had been made. "As a result, there are more claims, but we see that as positive."
The average time to settle a claim had dropped from five months to 20 days."
Dr Morris said ACC data was fed back to health providers and professional groups, who now had a clearer picture of where errors occurred and could better prevent them. It's possible that some events were not being disclosed previously but now health professionals are happy to co-operate.
Health and Disability Commissioner Ron Paterson agreed the "no fault" approach was fairer for patients.
Wound infections were the most common injury, followed by allergic reactions, bruising, nerve damage, skin infections, damaged teeth, skin tears, pressure sores and incisional hernias blowouts in the abdominal wall which formed when surgical cuts failed to heal properly."
However, he suspected health workers still hestitated to report incidents that could trigger disciplinary action. "It's not that health professionals wanted to stand in the way of patients getting compensation, but they would fight the claim because they didn't want a black mark beside their name.
"Doctors understand they have to be open and transparent. ."
Wellington lawyer and ACC specialist John Miller said the new system was fairer, but some inequities remained. We're all human and mistakes will always happen, but the only time that the medical profession gets into trouble is when it is less than open.

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BIGGEST PAYOUTS
Biggest individual payouts in 2008
– Blindness $552,435
– Osteomyelitis (bone infection) $483,359
– Adverse drug reaction $452,246
– Paralysis after spinal cord injury $295,485
– Ovarian cancer spread due to delayed diagnosis $206,644
– Stroke $190,910
– Lymphoma spread (delayed diagnosis) $188,215
– Brain haemorrhage $182,026
– Blindness $166,219
Payouts include ongoing medical and rehabilitation costs, as well as compensation paid directly to victim

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Global backlash hits Israeli-ban cafe

By KAREN ARNOLD – Sunday, 18 January 2009

BIG CALL: Cafe owner Mustafa Tekinkaya has been inundated with calls from around the world.

An Invercargill cafe owner has had to unplug several phones and answering machines after being inundated with calls from around the world protesting his decision not to serve Israeli customers while the war in Gaza continues.
Mustafa Tekinkaya, a Turkish Muslim, asked two women to leave his Invercargill cafe last Wednesday after hearing them speak Hebrew and establishing they were Israeli.
Tekinkaya's tearful wife Joanne told the Sunday Star-Times yesterday she couldn't believe the negative reaction had gone global.
He said his actions were a protest over the current conflict in Gaza where 1000 people have died, half of them women and children. They were also sending emails.
People were leaving up to 25 messages a day on the couple's two business phones and were telephoning them at home and on their cellphones.
In the United States Vos Iz Neias (Yiddish, meaning "what's news") an online US news site for orthodox religious Jews posted a story about Tekinkaya's stance.
At least three subscribers posted the phone number of the Mevlana cafe on the website with one saying: "Have fun everyone!!!"
One person said they had phoned: "I just called, a woman answered and got to hear the beginning of 'Hatikva. I
t was read by subscribers throughout Canada, Israel, England, Australia and Belgium."
Another caller said they had got an answerphone: "Didn't leave a message, though, couldn't think of anything pithy yet not obscene to say.' She hung up after about two seconds, though. That'll do it!!"
On Friday, a person claiming to be a friend of Tekinkaya's daughter wrote: "This is disgusting to hand out the cafe number on the internet and now she is receiving phone calls day and night of people from all around the world. I'll phone back tomorrow and have my grandchildren sing Am Yisrael Chai."
Joanne Tekinkaya said, in hindsight, her husband's action hadn't been the best."
Joanne Tekinkaya said, in hindsight, her husband's action hadn't been the best."
She said she was proud of Tekinkaya's stance against the war and the killing of hundreds of innocent children. But it has been twisted."
She said a mediation letter had arrived from the Human Rights Commission and the couple were discussing its contents with their lawyer. .
"But we are not sorry for taking a stand against the war. It was possible they would apologise for taking the action they did."

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Girlfriend saw Sonny Fai swept out to sea

– Monday, 05 January 2009

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AWFUL NEWS: Left to right: Warriors Director of Football John Hart, Warriors Football Manager Don Mann, Sonny Fai’s sister Lalelei Fai and girlfriend Jenna Frost.

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JENNA FROST: Sonny Fai’s girlfriend, who saw the rising NZ Warriors star swept out to sea.

SWEEPING SEARCH: Sonny Fai’s Warriors teammates were among the people searching for any sign of him on Bethell’s Beach.

Photosport
RISING STAR: Sonny Fai.

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HIGH AND LOW: The search for Sonny Fai was called off for the following day no trace of the Warriors player was found.
Fai, who was due to start training with the Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium earlier today, had gone to Bethell's Beach on Auckland's wild west coast late yesterday afternoon for an extra training run, to burn off some "Christmas excesses".

Photo 5 of 5

Sonny Fai’s girlfriend watches in despair

Sister grieves for Sonny Fai

NZ Warrior presumed drowned

Fai fans and friends commiserate on Bebo site

The girlfriend of missing New Zealand Warriors star Sonny Fai watched as her man was snatched by the sea.
He then headed into the water off Ihumoana Island about 7.
His sister, Lalelei Fai, said all but two managed to get out of a rip and back on to the safety of the beach.30pm with girlfriend Jenna Frost and several family members.
"I heard that they were all together, holding hands, but then somehow my younger brother drifted away from them and Sonny went back to get him," she said.
"I have a younger brother and a younger cousin that are a bit too weak, they couldn't swim that hard so some of the bigger boys and Sonny jumped in to save them," she said. .
Sonny told his little brother to let go of his hand, then he drifted back to shore and Sonny got stuck in the rip."
Ms Frost, Fai's girlfriend, watched from the beach unable to do anything to stop the sea take her man."
Ms Frost, Fai's girlfriend, watched from the beach unable to do anything to stop the sea take her man.
"He's a really good guy, he has a good kind heart," she said.
Fai was the type of person who also put other people first, Ms Frost said.
They returned at 5am earlier today to find his Warriors teammates already scouring the beach.
Lalelei Fai said the family went out to the beach last night, as soon as they heard what had happened, and stayed about 2am when searchers told them to go home.

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The search has been called off until tomorrow

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Swedish cop killed in camper crash

Holiday road toll now 15

Thursday, 01 January 2009

Police to target speedsters this year

One of the first people to die on the roads this year was a Swedish police inspector, who was killed when the campervan in which he and his family were travelling crashed this morning.
About 10.
He appeared to have been unable to make a left hand turn at the intersection, and skidded across SH 47 before rolling down a 20m bank into a small creek, said Sergeant Marc Clausen.15am today, the campervan driven by 50-year-old Goran Oskarsson left the road at the intersection of state highways 47 and 48, near the central North Island settlement of National Park. His wife was flown to Waikato Hospital with broken bones and head injuries, and his three teenage children were taken by ambulance to hospital with minor injuries.
Mr Oskarsson died at the scene.
Next of kin had been advised.
Identification on Mr Oskarsson indicated that he was a police inspector in Sweden, Mr Clausen said.
That involved the death of a motorcyclist found dead just outside Queenstown.
The new year has started badly with four road deaths, though the time one of those was killed is yet to be clarified.
About 1. The accident may have happened either side of midnight.
Around the same time, a 51-year-old Balclutha man failed to negotiate a moderate right hand bend on Cannibal Bay Road near Owaka, 27km southwest of Balclutha.30am, a 33-year-old Levin man was hit by a northbound car in the town centre while walking along the middle of State Highway 57, police said.
Emergency services were called about 10am after passing motorists saw the vehicle, but the accident was believed to have happened one or two hours after midnight.
His vehicle went down a steep incline, rolling a number of times before stopping about 50m from the road, police said.
Local police, the coroner and a serious crash investigator were investigating the cause of the crash.
The man was the sole occupant of the vehicle.
She was 28-year-old Lauren Leigh Stoneley of Hornby, Christchurch.
Meanwhile, police have named the woman killed in Canterbury on Tuesday.30pm.
Ms Stoneley was the passenger in a car being driven by her boyfriend when it left the road and hit a tree on Arundel-Rakaia Gorge Rd, near Alford Forest, about 8.
The Christmas-New Year road toll now stands at 15, with three and a half days of the period remaining.
The man suffered minor injuries.
The road toll for the whole of 2008 was estimated at 359, the lowest in 49 years, but may change when the timing of the Otago fatality is confirmed. .
The road toll was a decrease on the 421 deaths in 2007, and 393 in 2006, according to the Ministry of Transport.
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